## What is FedPulse?
Real-time CME FedWatch rates + DXY, yields & Gold/Silver ratio—your all-in-one Fed policy monitor for metals & FX.
**New users:** Try the free 7-day trial to explore all features before purchasing.
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## Three Core Modules
### 1. Fed Rate Expectations (USD Fundamentals)
**Data Source:** CME FedWatch (cmegroup-tools.quikstrike.net)
The Fed Funds futures market prices rate change probabilities for the next FOMC meeting—the most forward-looking USD monetary policy indicator.
| Signal | Condition | Trading Implication |
|--------|-----------|---------------------|
| **Hawkish** | Expected rate > Current + 2.5 bps | USD strength, metals headwind |
| **Dovish** | Expected rate < Current - 2.5 bps | USD weakness, metals tailwind |
| **Neutral** | Within ±2.5 bps | No clear directional bias |
**Panel displays:** Fed Bias, Expected Rate, Current Range, Pricing Gap (bps), Impact on Metals
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### 2. DXY & Treasury Yields (Economic Outlook)
**Data Source:** Yahoo Finance (primary) / Investing.com (fallback)
| Indicator | Trading Implication |
|-----------|---------------------|
| **DXY > 105** | Very strong USD, commodity headwind |
| **DXY < 95** | Very weak USD, commodity tailwind |
| **10Y-2Y < 0** (Inverted) | Recession signal, risk-off → gold, JPY, CHF |
| **10Y-2Y > 1%** (Steep) | Growth outlook, risk-on → equities |
**Panel displays:** DXY, 10Y/2Y/3M yields, Yield curve interpretation
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### 3. Gold/Silver Ratio (Metal Selection)
**Data Source:** cTrader broker bars (Gold/Silver symbols)
The ratio (Gold ÷ Silver) shows relative valuation. Historical range: 40-90, mean ~65-70.
| Z-Score | Interpretation | Mean Reversion Signal |
|---------|----------------|----------------------|
| **Z > +1** | Gold expensive vs silver | Silver may outperform |
| **Z < -1** | Silver expensive vs gold | Gold may outperform |
| **Z ≈ 0** | Near historical average | No clear signal |
**Chart features:**
- Interactive zoom/pan
- Timeframe selector (1m to Monthly)
- Custom date range
- Bollinger Bands (configurable period/multiplier)
- Time-weighted Huber regression trend line
- **Z-Score display** with color coding (red >1, green <-1)
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## Panel Overview
| Section | Content |
|---------|---------|
| **Summary** | Fed Bias, Expected/Current Rate, DXY, Metals Impact |
| **FedWatch** | Next meeting date, probability distribution (Cut/Hold/Hike) |
| **Reference Data** | DXY, Treasury yields (10Y/2Y/3M), yield curve interpretation |
| **Interpretation Guide** | How to read probabilities, Z-score signals, Bollinger Bands |
| **Ratio Chart** | Interactive gold/silver ratio with Z-score and trend analysis |
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## Parameters
| Group | Parameter | Default | Description |
|-------|-----------|---------|-------------|
| **UI** | Language | Auto | Auto/English/Chinese |
| **System** | Polling Seconds | 120 | UI refresh interval (60+) |
| **Rates** | Enable Daily Calibration | true | Daily close calibration |
| **Rates** | Daily Calibration Time | 21:10 | UTC time (HH:mm) |
| **Symbols** | Gold/Silver Symbol | AUTO | Auto-detect or manual |
| **Chart** | Timeframe | Daily | Default (changeable in UI) |
| **Chart** | Lookback Bars | 300 | Default bars (50-500, UI up to 2000) |
**Persisted settings:** Bollinger Bands enabled/period/multiplier (saved locally)
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## Technical Details
### Data Refresh Intervals
| Source | Interval | Notes |
|--------|----------|-------|
| CME FedWatch | 2 min | Next meeting only |
| Yahoo Finance | 5 min | DXY, yields |
| Investing.com | 15 min | Fallback only |
| Atlanta Fed | 6 hours | Supplementary |
### Algorithm: Time-Weighted Huber Regression
The trend line uses IRLS with Huber loss:
- **Weights:** Exponential decay `w = 0.5^(age/halfLife)`
- **Half-life:** 20% of visible range (0.25-90 days)
- **Huber δ:** 1.345 × MAD × 1.4826
- **Iterations:** 8 rounds
## Disclaimer
FedPulse is informational only. Not investment advice. Conduct your own research before trading.
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