Trend Cycle is a trend analytics tool that focuses on trend duration, not just direction.

It:

• Detects bullish and bearish trends based on the slope of a Hull Moving Average (HMA).
• Counts how many bars the current trend has been active (Real Length).
• Stores the lengths of recent up-trends and down-trends separately.
• Computes the average length of bullish and bearish trends (Bull avg / Bear avg).
• Draws:
• • A green HMA during bullish trends and red HMA during bearish trends.
  • Horizontal projection lines at the start of each trend, with a label like PL: 18 (Probable Length in bars).
  • A live label near the current price showing trend direction and Real Length.
  • A display panel with:
  • • average bullish and bearish trend duration,
    • lists of recent trend lengths (up to the selected sample size).

The goal is to help you answer:

“How old is this trend, and how long do trends like this usually last?”

How it works (logic)

1. Hull Moving Average (HMA)
   The indicator calculates a Hull Moving Average of the close price using the HMA Smoothing Length parameter.
   The HMA is smoother than a simple/EMA but responds quickly to direction changes.
2. Trend detection by slope
   Over the last Trend Detection Sensitivity bars, it checks the HMA:
   As long as a trend is defined, a counter (Real Len) is increased each bar, representing the duration of the current trend.
3. • If HMA has been strictly rising → trend is bullish (↑).
   • If HMA has been strictly falling → trend is bearish (↓).
   • Otherwise, it keeps the previous trend state.
3. Recording trend lengths
   When the trend flips from bullish to bearish or vice-versa:
4. • The duration of the completed trend is stored:
   • • bullish trends into the bullish list,
     • bearish trends into the bearish list.
   • Each list is limited by Trend Sample Size (e.g. last 10 trends).
   • These samples are used to compute:
   • • Bull avg = average bullish trend length.
     • Bear avg = average bearish trend length.
4. Probable Length projections
   At the start of each new trend, if there are enough samples:
   These projections are kept on the chart as history so you can visually compare predicted vs actual trend durations.
5. • It calculates the average length for that trend type (bullish or bearish).
   • Draws a horizontal line from the trend start bar for approximately that many bars.
   • Places a label at the centre of the line:
   • • PL: X → Probable Length = X bars.
5. Live label
   On every bar, the indicator draws a single live label near the HMA:
   This shows current trend direction and exactly how many bars it has lasted so far.
6. • Example text:
   • • Trend ↑
Real Len: 7
   • Colour:
   • • Green (↑) for bullish trends
     • Orange/red (↓) for bearish trends
6. Display panel (bottom left)
   When Show Display Panel is enabled, a static text panel appears in the corner of the chart showing:
   This acts as a quick statistical overview of recent trend behaviour on that symbol/timeframe.
7. • Title: Trend Cycle
   • Bull avg: X bars
   • Bear avg: Y bars
   • Bull samples: list of recent bullish trend lengths
   • Bear samples: list of recent bearish trend lengths

How to read it in practice

• Green HMA + “Trend ↑”
  → A bullish trend is active.
  → Real Len tells you how many bars it has lasted so far.
  → The most recent PL: X line gives you a visual idea of how long similar bullish trends tend to run.
• Red HMA + “Trend ↓”
  → A bearish trend is active.
  → Real Len = age of the current downtrend.
  → Compare Real Len vs Bear avg in the panel to see if the move is young or mature.
• When Real Len approaches or exceeds the average (Bull avg / Bear avg):
  → The current trend is statistically “old” compared to recent history.
  → You may choose to:
• • tighten stops,
  • lock in profits,
  • be more cautious with fresh entries in that direction.
• Short trends vs long trends
• • Many very short trends → choppy / mean-reverting environment.
  • Few long trends → more directional market, with extended moves.