Price Projection Dynamic 📈🔮
https://chartshots.spotware.com/c/69d5304ea1cc1
What Is It?
https://chartshots.spotware.com/c/69d52fb4b01cd
Price Projection Dynamic is an overlay indicator that projects statistically probable future price paths using Monte Carlo simulation and evaluates directional bias through a Bayesian probability classifier. It answers one question: given how this asset has been moving, where is it statistically likely to go next? 📊
https://chartshots.spotware.com/c/69d53010d38ce
How It Works ⚙️
Engine 1 — Monte Carlo Projection 🎲
The indicator analyzes recent price history and extracts logarithmic returns. It calculates the average return and its standard deviation — capturing both the asset's drift (tendency) and volatility (erratic movement) 🌪️.
It runs 200 simulated price paths (up to 500) into the future. Each simulation is a "random walk" based on real recent action. From these, the indicator extracts 5 percentile bands:
Band
Meaning
95%
Optimistic extreme — only 5% of simulations went higher 🚀
75%
Upper probable range — price ended above this in 25% of sims 📈
50% (MD)
Median projection — the statistical center of all outcomes 🎯
25%
Lower probable range — price ended below this in 25% of sims 📉
05%
Pessimistic extreme — only 5% of simulations went lower 📉🛑
Pro Tip: The wider the fan opens, the higher the current volatility 📢. A tight fan means the asset is moving predictably 🧵.
Engine 2 — Bayesian Classifier 🧠
Independent from the projection, this engine classifies the market as bullish or bearish by:
- Looking back over a window (default 500 bars) 🔍.
- Measuring relative volume and momentum for bullish vs. bearish bars.
- Calculating which profile the current bar fits better using Gaussian probability ⚖️.
The result is a win probability percentage:
Probability
Interpretation
> 70%
High bullish confidence ✅🟢
50–70%
Moderate / unclear ⚖️🟡
< 30%
High bearish confidence ✅🔴
Visual Elements 🎨
- Green lines (75%, 95%): Upper projection bands — bullish range 🍏
- White line (MD): Median projected price — most probable path 🏁
- Orange lines (25%, 05%): Lower projection bands — bearish range 🍊
- Dotted outer lines: 95% and 05% extremes (low probability boundaries) ⚠️
- Solid inner lines: 75%, 50%, 25% (high probability zone) ✅
- Price labels: Exact projected price for each percentile 🏷️
- Info panel (top-right): Bayesian win probability, median target, relative volume, signal direction 🖥️
How To Use 📖
- Read the fan shape 📢 — If it expands rapidly, volatility is high and projections are less certain.
- Use the median (MD) line 🎯 as the most statistically probable future price target.
- Use 75%/25% bands 📏 as realistic upper/lower targets for trades.
- Use 95%/05% bands 🛑 as extreme boundaries — useful for stop loss placement.
- Check the Bayesian panel 🧠 — A probability above 70% or below 30% adds directional conviction.
- Combine both engines 🤝 — If the median line slopes upward AND Bayesian probability is > 70%, the setup is statistically strong.
Key Parameters ⚙️
Parameter
What It Controls
Higher Value
Lower Value
Iterations
Number of simulated paths
Smoother bands 🌊
Faster computation ⚡
Lookahead
Future projection distance
Longer horizon 🔭
Shorter, more reliable 🔍
Sample Depth
Recent bars to analyze
Long-term behavior 🐢
Recent behavior only 🐇
Classifier Window
Bayesian history
Stabler probability ⚖️
More reactive ⚡
Indicator Profile 📋
- Indicator category: Statistics 📊
- Output type: Visualisation & Signals 🖼️
- Data requirements: Bars only 📶
Disclaimer ⚠️
This indicator projects statistical probabilities, not predictions 🔮. Monte Carlo simulations assume the future will look like the recent past — this breaks during black swan events 🦢 or news-driven gaps. Use as a probabilistic framework alongside your own risk management 🛡️.
5 | 0 % | |
4 | 100 % | |
3 | 0 % | |
2 | 0 % | |
1 | 0 % |
