Price Projection Dynamic 📈🔮

https://chartshots.spotware.com/c/69d5304ea1cc1

What Is It?

https://chartshots.spotware.com/c/69d52fb4b01cd

Price Projection Dynamic is an overlay indicator that projects statistically probable future price paths using Monte Carlo simulation and evaluates directional bias through a Bayesian probability classifier. It answers one question: given how this asset has been moving, where is it statistically likely to go next? 📊

https://chartshots.spotware.com/c/69d53010d38ce

How It Works ⚙️

Engine 1 — Monte Carlo Projection 🎲

The indicator analyzes recent price history and extracts logarithmic returns. It calculates the average return and its standard deviation — capturing both the asset's drift (tendency) and volatility (erratic movement) 🌪️.

It runs 200 simulated price paths (up to 500) into the future. Each simulation is a "random walk" based on real recent action. From these, the indicator extracts 5 percentile bands:

Band

Meaning

95%

Optimistic extreme — only 5% of simulations went higher 🚀

75%

Upper probable range — price ended above this in 25% of sims 📈

50% (MD)

Median projection — the statistical center of all outcomes 🎯

25%

Lower probable range — price ended below this in 25% of sims 📉

05%

Pessimistic extreme — only 5% of simulations went lower 📉🛑

Pro Tip: The wider the fan opens, the higher the current volatility 📢. A tight fan means the asset is moving predictably 🧵.

Engine 2 — Bayesian Classifier 🧠

Independent from the projection, this engine classifies the market as bullish or bearish by:

1. Looking back over a window (default 500 bars) 🔍.
2. Measuring relative volume and momentum for bullish vs. bearish bars.
3. Calculating which profile the current bar fits better using Gaussian probability ⚖️.

The result is a win probability percentage:

Probability

Interpretation

> 70%

High bullish confidence ✅🟢

50–70%

Moderate / unclear ⚖️🟡

< 30%

High bearish confidence ✅🔴

Visual Elements 🎨

• Green lines (75%, 95%): Upper projection bands — bullish range 🍏
• White line (MD): Median projected price — most probable path 🏁
• Orange lines (25%, 05%): Lower projection bands — bearish range 🍊
• Dotted outer lines: 95% and 05% extremes (low probability boundaries) ⚠️
• Solid inner lines: 75%, 50%, 25% (high probability zone) ✅
• Price labels: Exact projected price for each percentile 🏷️
• Info panel (top-right): Bayesian win probability, median target, relative volume, signal direction 🖥️

How To Use 📖

1. Read the fan shape 📢 — If it expands rapidly, volatility is high and projections are less certain.
2. Use the median (MD) line 🎯 as the most statistically probable future price target.
3. Use 75%/25% bands 📏 as realistic upper/lower targets for trades.
4. Use 95%/05% bands 🛑 as extreme boundaries — useful for stop loss placement.
5. Check the Bayesian panel 🧠 — A probability above 70% or below 30% adds directional conviction.
6. Combine both engines 🤝 — If the median line slopes upward AND Bayesian probability is > 70%, the setup is statistically strong.

Key Parameters ⚙️

Parameter

What It Controls

Higher Value

Lower Value

Iterations

Number of simulated paths

Smoother bands 🌊

Faster computation ⚡

Lookahead

Future projection distance

Longer horizon 🔭

Shorter, more reliable 🔍

Sample Depth

Recent bars to analyze

Long-term behavior 🐢

Recent behavior only 🐇

Classifier Window

Bayesian history

Stabler probability ⚖️

More reactive ⚡

Indicator Profile 📋

• Indicator category: Statistics 📊
• Output type: Visualisation & Signals 🖼️
• Data requirements: Bars only 📶

Disclaimer ⚠️

This indicator projects statistical probabilities, not predictions 🔮. Monte Carlo simulations assume the future will look like the recent past — this breaks during black swan events 🦢 or news-driven gaps. Use as a probabilistic framework alongside your own risk management 🛡️.