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ZScore Reversion
「ZScore Reversion」ロゴ
5.0
03/09/2025
95
Desktop
Since 03/10/2024
販売
102
Free installs
14921
「ZScore Reversion」アップロード画像「ZScore Reversion」アップロード画像「ZScore Reversion」アップロード画像

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The Z-Score transforms price into a "standard
deviation" scale,
showing how far each candle’s close (or open, high, low) deviates from its
historical mean. With an intuitive visual, it helps identify overbought/oversold
conditions and
high-probability reversal zones! 🔄

1️⃣ What Does It Do?

🔹 Standardizes Price: Converts the absolute closing value into a Z-Score—how many standard deviations it is from the mean
of the last N bars.
🔹 Highlights
Statistical Extremes: Values
near ±1, ±2, or ±3 indicate rarity in price movement:

  • ±1 SD (≈ 68% probability between –1 and 1)
  • ±2 SD (≈ 95% probability between –2 and 2)
  • ±3 SD (≈ 99.7% probability between –3 and 3)
    🔹 Aids
    in Mean Reversion Trading:
    When Z-Score exceeds ±2 or ±3, the market is in an extreme
    zone and tends to
    revert toward the mean (zero).
    🔹 Clear
    Visualization: Using histograms (or special candles), a moving average
    line, and colored zones, you can instantly see if price is behaving "normally" or is a statistical
    outlier.

2️⃣ How Does It Work?

📐 Calculation of Mean & Standard Deviation

  • A lookback
    period (e.g., 99
    bars) is used.
  • The mean and standard
    deviation (SD) of
    closing prices are calculated.
  • Higher SD = More volatility in price movements.

🧮 Z-Score Formula

Z=Current Close−Historical MeanStandard DeviationZ=Standard DeviationCurrent Close−Historical Mean​

  • Positive Z → Close above the mean.
  • Negative Z → Close below the mean.

📊 Z-Table Probabilities

  • Highlights the
    current Z-Score’s column to show how rare/extreme the price is!

3️⃣ How to Use It in Trading

✅ Mean Reversion: Look for Z > +2 or Z < –2 to trade reversals (sell overbought
extremes, buy oversold extremes).
✅ Trend Confirmation: A sustained Z
> 0 + rising moving average signals
strength; Z < 0 + falling MA suggests weakness.
✅ Risk Management: Near ±1 SD, expect normal moves; near ±3
SD, adjust stops &
position sizes carefully.
✅ Entry Timing: Combine extreme Z-Scores with support/resistance
levels for precise
entries.

4️⃣ Pros & Considerations

✔️ Advantages

  • Statistical edge in spotting extreme price conditions.
  • Multiple display modes (histogram, candles, bands, probability
    table).
  • Easy customization (length, colors, chart type).

⚠️ Considerations:

  • In strong
    trends, price can stay
    "extreme" for long periods without reversing.
  • Assumes a normal
    distribution—may not
    work well in highly volatile/skewed markets.
  • Best used in stable
    volatility environments.

 

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