"Bayesian Price Projection Model" logo
Indicator
207 downloads
Version 1.0, Oct 2025
Windows, Mac
"Bayesian Price Projection Model" uploaded image
"Bayesian Price Projection Model" uploaded image
"Bayesian Price Projection Model" uploaded image
"Bayesian Price Projection Model" uploaded image
Since 03/10/2024
151
Sales
35.05K
Free installs

🚀 10,000+ traders already use our TOP indicators🏆

Discover why professionals choose us – the most powerful tools on cTrader (indicators, algorithms, and cBots) are waiting for you.

👉 Get all our TOP systems here:

_______________________________________________

📌 Market Structure Indicators

·     ✅ AdvancedMarket Structure: Bos, Choch, SwinLevels, Order Blocks,  Market Structure& Liquidity Finder

·     🔄 Dynamic Market StructureAnalysis of Turning Points

·     🧱 Order Block

·     ⚖️ Market Imbalance

·     ⛓️ BOS & CHOCH

·     🧠 ICT Power of 3

·     🌀 Market Polarity Zones

_______________________________________________

🔚 Smart Exit Systems

·     📍 Trailing Smart Algorithm

_______________________________________________

📐 ZigZag Indicators

·     🔍 ZigZag Price LiquidityProjection

·     🧭 S&R Structural ZigZag

·     ➖ ZigZag

·     🎯 Zig-Zag Extremity Tracker

_______________________________________________

🧱 Support & Resistance Indicators

·     🟩 SmartTrend Support &Resistance Lines

·     🧱 All Support and ResistanceLevels

_______________________________________________

📊 Trend & Channel Indicators

·     🔄 Auto-Trend Channel

·     📊 Supertrend

·     ⚡Momentum Trend Analyzer

·     🧠 Adaptive Trend Channel

·     💥 Channel Breakout System

·     🌈 Dynamic Trend Gradient

·     ⭐ PREMIUM SSL CHANNEL

·     🔁 Reactive Moving Average

_______________________________________________

💧 Volume & Liquidity Tools

·     🔥 Volume POC Heatmap

·     📉 Leverage Liquidation Map

·     🔍 Momentum Fair Value Gap

·     🕒 Fair Value Gap Sessions

_______________________________________________

Momentum & RSI Indicators

·     📈 RSI Trend Trigger

·     🚀 Dynamic Range Momentum

·     🔎 Multi-Level Candle Bias
Tracker

_______________________________________________

🔮 Prediction & Projection Tools

·     📐 Prediction Based on Linreg& ATR

·     📏 Fibonacci Linear RegressionMulti-timeframe

·     📈 Volume-Powered Market Flow Projector

📊 Dynamic Price Projection Algorithm 📈

This algorithm combines **statistical calculations**, **technical analysis**, and **Bayesian theory** to forecast a future price while providing **uncertainty ranges** that represent upper and lower bounds. The calculations are designed to adjust projections by considering market **trends**, **volatility**, and the historical probabilities of reaching new highs or lows.

Here’s how it works:

🚀 Future Price Projection
A dynamic calculation estimates the future price based on three key elements:
1. **Trend**: Defines whether the market is predisposed to move up or down.
2. **Volatility**: Quantifies the magnitude of the expected change based on historical fluctuations.



🧠 **Bayesian Probabilistic Adjustment**
- Conditional probabilities are calculated using **Bayes' formula**:
\[
P(A|B) = \frac{P(B|A) \cdot P(A)}{P(B)}
\]
This models future events using conditional information:
- **Probability of reaching a new all-time high** if the price is trending upward.
- **Probability of reaching a new all-time low** if the price is trending downward.

- These probabilities refine the future price estimate by considering:
- **Higher volatility** increases the likelihood of hitting extreme levels (highs/lows).
- **Market trends** influence the expected price movement direction.



🌟 **Volatility Calculation**
- Volatility is measured using the **ATR (Average True Range)** indicator with a 14-period window. This reflects the average amplitude of price fluctuations.
- To express volatility as a percentage, the ATR is normalized by dividing it by the closing price and multiplying it by 200.
- Volatility is then categorized into descriptive levels (e.g., **Very Low**, **Low**, **Moderate**, etc.) for better interpretation.

---

🎯 **Deviation Limits (Upper and Lower)**
- The upper and lower limits form a **projected range** around the estimated future price, providing a framework for uncertainty.
- These limits are calculated by adjusting the ATR using:
- A user-defined **multiplier** (`factor_desviacion`).
- **Bayesian probabilities** calculated earlier.
- The **square root of the projected period** (`proyeccion_dias`), incorporating the principle that uncertainty grows over time.


🔍 **Interpreting the Model**
This can be seen as a **dynamic probabilistic model** that:
- Combines **technical analysis** (trends and ATR).
- Refines probabilities using **Bayesian theory**.
- Provides a **visual projection range** to help you understand potential future price movements and associated uncertainties.

⚡ Whether you're analyzing **volatile markets** or confirming **bullish/bearish scenarios**, this tool equips you with a robust, data-driven approach! 🚀

Indicator profile
0.0
Reviews: 0
Customer reviews
No reviews for this product yet. Already tried it? Be the first to tell others!
BTCUSD
Forex
EURUSD
GBPUSD
NZDUSD
Crypto
Stocks
XAUUSD
NAS100
USDJPY
Products available through cTrader Store, including trading bots, indicators and plugins, are provided by third-party developers and made available for informational and technical access purposes only. cTrader Store is not a broker and does not provide investment advice, personal recommendations or any guarantee of future performance.

More from this author

Indicator
ATR
RSI
+7
ZigZag filters noise, spots trends, patterns, pivots, aiding analysis, trade management, and confirmations. 📉📈
Indicator
ATR
RSI
+7
Identify bullish and bearish Order Blocks to spot key support/resistance levels and potential trend reversals! 📈🔄
Indicator
ATR
RSI
+7
📊 Shows volume by price levels, highlights POC, and key zones. Identifies dynamic support/resistance and imbalances.
Indicator
ATR
RSI
+6
Market structural patterns , specifically the concepts of Change of Character (ChoCH) 🔄 and Break of Structure (BoS) 💥
Indicator
ATR
RSI
+6
Adaptive trend channel using linear regression and Pearson correlation for dynamic support, resistance, and trends.
Indicator
RSI
Breakout
+1
"Identify key market zones and visualize support/resistance from multiple timeframes on a single chart.
Indicator
ATR
RSI
+7
identify and highlight temporary market inefficiencies known as "fair value gaps" 🚨 within specific trading Sessions.
Indicator
ATR
RSI
+6
💹 Define a price channel 📈 and determine trend direction (bullish 🟢 or bearish 🔴).
Indicator
ATR
RSI
+6
📊Zones Supply & Demand: Identifies key price levels with high volume concentration, marking Supply/Demand Zones & Marke
Indicator
RSI
BTCUSD
+5
Identify market structure effortlessly with swing highs, lows, CHoCH, and BOS levels for smart trading decisions! 📊🔍"
Indicator
ATR
RSI
+8
Detects bullish and bearish divergences
Indicator
Advanced price action tool that combines multiple technical analysis concepts

You may also like

Indicator
RSI
Volume
Scan RSI across multiple timeframes/symbols with real-time Telegram alerts and interactive visual mini-charts.
Indicator
Flag
Key Levels
+5
Zig Zag filters out minor price noise and connects only the most significant swing and lows for key turning points.
Indicator
This Indicator will display either the speed or the acceleration of the current symbol.
Indicator
AI
ATR
+27
Volume Bubbles is a lightweight yet powerful visual indicator for cTrader
Indicator
Imbalance
Key Levels
+2
A Next-Generation Adaptive Oscillator with Z-Score Regime Engine.
Indicator
ATR
Key Levels
It combines the trend-filtering power of Renko charts with the volatility tracking of ATR Bands
Indicator
Forex
Real-Time Candlestick Pattern Detection with Custom Alerts & Trend Analysis for cTrader
Indicator
RSI
MACD
This indicator is a combination of MACD and RSI into one. This is perfect fusion and powerful indicator ever.
Indicator
Prop
Forex
+4
Displays real-time balance, equity, P&L, margin metrics directly on your charts.
Indicator
Prop
Forex
+5
Tracks NY, London, Tokyo, Sydney sessions with custom visuals, and a real-time expanding range box and breakout High/Low
Indicator
Forex
USDJPY
+1
JPYX Indicator with HMA
Indicator
ATR
Forex
+5
Most used candle patterns. (1 candle, 2 candles and 3 candles patterns) and Marubozu. Bonus Fibo Risk control.
Indicator
Signal
Dark Poll Signal Indicator.liquidity leakage,precedes the great movement, accumulation, distribution
Indicator
This is an indicator that displays candlesticks from different timeframes. This is the demo version with a 30-day expira
Indicator
Auto Fibonacci Retracement Indicator for cTrader
Indicator
MACD
Prop
+14
Customize the MACD! Choose colors, get real-time tick updates, and see crossover points for enhanced trading precision.
Indicator
Auto-detect supply & demand zones, remove broken levels, and trade smarter with real-time alerts. Precision made simple.
Indicator
Key Levels
Market Structure
Economic calendar news directly on the chart.
Since 03/10/2024
151
Sales
35.05K
Free installs